The Federal Reserve announces its next rate decision on Wednesday, October 28, 2026, at 2:00 p.m. ET, and the prediction markets have already voted. Kalshi, Polymarket and the fed funds futures market all price the same outcome: a hold that keeps the target range at 3.75 to 4.00 percent. This page was written on Tuesday, October 27, the day before the decision, and it reads the fed rate decision odds the way this site reads every market: as prices, with timestamps, not as promises.
The odds for October 28, as of Tuesday
Kalshi and Polymarket sell event contracts that pay one dollar if the outcome happens, so a price of 92 cents reads as a 92 percent chance. Futures traders express the same view through fed funds contracts, which the CME FedWatch tool converts into probabilities. The snapshots below were taken on Tuesday, October 27, 2026, and each row carries its source and time, because these prices move.
| Venue | Hold | Hike 25bp | Cut 25bp | Snapshot |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 91% | 8% | 1% | Oct 27, 2026 (tracker updates every 30 minutes) |
| Polymarket | 93.9% | 5.5% | under 1% | Updated Oct 27, 2026, 13:56 UTC |
| CME fed funds futures | 88.9% | 11.1% on any move | Morning of Oct 27, 2026 (FedWatch) | |
Snapshots differ by a few points depending on the hour and the contract. DeFi Rate, which tracks both prediction markets, observed Kalshi's hold price at 94 percent on Tuesday morning (October 27, 8:42 to 9:07 a.m. ET). The gap between 89 and 94 is measurement, not disagreement: every venue says hold, and the live argument is about December.
Why hold wins October, and why a hike is still live
The Fed already moved once this autumn. On September 16, 2026, it raised the target range by 25 basis points to 3.75 to 4.00 percent, unanimously, 12 to 0: the first hike since 2023. A second hike six weeks later is a stronger claim than one hike and a pause, and nothing since September has forced the committee's hand.
The case for keeping a hike live is inflation. September CPI rose 3.7 percent over the year, up from 3.4 percent in August, driven by energy prices, while core CPI rose 2.6 percent. The committee's own September projections pointed the same way: 16 of 18 participants projected at least one more hike in 2026, with a median year-end rate of 4.1 percent, above today's range. Economists sit where the markets sit: a Reuters poll taken October 16 to 20, 2026, found 94 of 100 expecting an October hold.
This meeting publishes no new projections and no dot plot, so the signal sits in the statement's wording, the vote split, and Chair Warsh's press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET. September's decision was unanimous; a dissent in favor of a hike on Wednesday would be the hawkish tell.
December 9 is the meeting the markets are really trading
The December 8 to 9 meeting arrives with a fresh Summary of Economic Projections and a new dot plot, and the pricing there points the other way.
| Source | December hike | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | about 79% | Morning of Oct 27, 2026 (via DeFi Rate) |
| Polymarket | 74.5% | Updated Oct 27, 2026, 13:56 UTC |
| CME fed funds futures | about 71% | Oct 23, 2026 |
| Reuters poll of economists | 100 of 100 expect one | Poll taken Oct 16 to 20, 2026 |
Three data releases decide whether that pricing holds: the October jobs report on Friday, November 6; October CPI on Tuesday, November 10, the last inflation print the committee sees before it decides; and the November jobs report on Friday, December 4. One calendar quirk sharpens the bet: November CPI is released on Thursday, December 10, the day after the December decision, so the Fed will move, or not, without the freshest inflation number in hand.
What could move the odds before 2 p.m. tomorrow
Almost nothing, and that is the point of this page. One release lands before the statement, September core PCE at 8:30 a.m. ET on Wednesday, and beyond it the calendar is empty. The prices have settled while waiting: over the past seven days Kalshi's hold price climbed from 88 to 94 percent as the hike price fell from 13 to 7 (DeFi Rate daily closes to October 27). When odds stop moving, the remaining decision for anyone holding a contract is the exit, the same sell before settlement logic this site worked through for the 99 cent case.
These odds are published as data, and this site has covered the pipes behind them since the lane opened: how the Kalshi and Polymarket data feeds expose every price, and how the venues compare on sports contracts once the macro markets close. The Fed board is the same machinery pointed at interest rates.
Update, October 28, 2026: the Fed held, maintaining the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.75 to 4.00 percent in a 10 to 2 vote, with Lisa D. Cook and Beth M. Hammack dissenting in favor of a 25 basis point hike. December pricing firmed after the decision: a December 9 hike was priced at 79.5 percent on Kalshi and 79 percent on Polymarket as of 3:20 p.m. ET (DeFi Rate, observed 3:09 to 3:20 p.m. ET), against about 79 percent and 74.5 percent before the decision.
WorldMarketStats tracks market data, not trading advice. Prediction market prices are estimates set by traders, they move with every trade, and they are neither this site's forecast nor financial advice.